Bear Tracker

Stock Market Forecaster

Bear Tracker is a stock market forecasting tool that predicts how the price of the S&P500 will move over a 50-day period.

The tool utilizes an adaptation of the Dividend Discount Model derived from our Systematic Global Macro program to gauge the attractiveness and vulnerabilities of the U.S. Equity market.
Read more about the framework.

Will the stock market go up or down?

Launch Bear Tracker

Did you hear the one about the bear and the hot air balloon?

How We Think

Will the stock market go up or down? This simple question can be conceptualized by imagining someone trying to escape from a grizzly bear by hot air balloon.

Primary Factors

Growth and Yield act as burners, working together to fuel the upward movement of the balloon. Without positive yields and growing underlying economies, stocks can’t hope to get off the ground.

Secondary Factors

Profitability, Value, and Sentiment act as ballasts that may or may not inhibit the potential of the stock market. With prevailing negative sentiment, you are effectively tossing an anvil out of the basket tied to your foot. With solid value, you're cutting the rope to release a ballast.

Will the stock market go up or down?

Launch Bear Tracker